What warblers are expected in the New Orleans area in winter?

Yesterday I was driving behind the Walmart in Chalmette, to check out the eagle nest in that vicinity*.   As I drove along the woodland edge, I chanced to notice a mixed songbird flock foraging low in the roadside scrub.  I abruptly halted the car, backed up a bit, and rolled down the passenger side window to "spish" and see what was there.  Yellowrumps charged the car, and with them came a few Orange-crowneds and a drab female Pine.  To my delight and surprise, a Prairie Warbler jointed the group, showing off its bright yellow underparts and neatly-streaked face and side.

The first three species are regular winterers around New Orleans, but Prairie is somewhat atypical.  I generally divide our wintering warbler species into several "tiers" of abundance/likelihood:

TOP TIER
Yellow-rumped Warbler
(Undeniably the most numerous species here in winter; a half day's birding our usual target winter habitats -forest, scrub, and marsh edge- will commonly produce dozens)

SECOND TIER
Orange-crowned Warbler
Pine Warbler
Palm Warbler
Common Yellowthroat
Wilson's Warbler
(All widespread and numerous enough to be found on most such half-day efforts)

THIRD TIER
Black-and-white Warbler
Nashville Warbler
Northern Parula
Yellow Warbler
Yellow-throated Warbler
Black-throated Green Warber
Prairie Warbler
Ovenbird
Northern Waterthrush
(Regularly occurring trophy birds; an active birder might expect to find around half of these in the course of a given winter; if you find one on a Christmas Count, it will probably be a count exclusive)

FOURTH TIER
Everything else that has ever turned up!  This list is long, and ranges from species a relatively small step down from those above (e.g., American Redstart) to some seemingly impossible vagrants (e.g., Lucy's and MacGillivray's Warblers, and Painted Redstart).   

*an adult was sitting low in the nest, evidently incubating.